But let's have a look at the numbers, that's why we are here.
Let's define the average market price as it would be if all graduates were sent directly to transfer auction.
I'd say something along the lines of this in a well-established GW:
5.0*: £3m
4.5*: £1.5m
4.0*: £500k
3.5*: £200k
3.0*: £20k
How can someone predict these numbers I hear you say. Well, I can't. Still, I think they give a rough estimate of the average market value for players in a GW.
In my live GW i found the following youth distribution of potential for one season:
5.0*: 15
4.5*: 31
4.0*: 81
3.5*: 235
3.0*: 450
So in total, youth for one season are worth:
£3m*15 + £1.5m*31 + £500k*81 + £200k*235 + £20k*450 ≈ £200m
We will assume that 75% of youth are generated through YAs = £150m.
Every graduate costs £25k in running costs to produce (running cost of academy / graduate output). The equlibrium can be calculated as total youth market value from academies / graduate cost: £150m / £25k = 6000 graduates each season in the GW.
This roughly comes down to 700 3* academies.
So there you have it. Once you see more than 700 academies in your GW you really should close down your academies and spend your hard earned cash elsewhere.
Of course, this doesn't take into account the start-up costs for the YAs. If we expect a 3 year lifetime for the YAs we build, we can add around £15k pr graduate in construction costs and the total cost for a graduate wil be £40k.
Taking into consideration these costs, you should probably close down your academy after around 400 academies have been established in your GW.
From a financial perspective, to have the slightest chance of expecting a positive return from your YAs, you should go all-in from the start of the GW with the knowledge that you will have to pull out once enough academies have been established in the GW.
Practically speaking though, my gut feeling is that the overall equilibrium numbers shown here are too high, and that YAs never will be worthwhile if you choose this route as a way of improving your finances graph.
Of course, unless you manage to find some obscure country producing raw talent day in and day out!
Great post - this looks like a great new blog, I'll definitely be keeping an eye and will link from my new blog when I get it off the ground.
ReplyDeleteAnother way of looking at it rather than the slightly arbitrary transfer values you use, is to consider the cost of getting a youth player through to age 21. For an academy grad I estimate this to be about £130k. That's based on £25k academy running costs + £15k academy setup costs as you outline above, then daily wages (16y/o @£200, 17 y/o @ £200, 18 y/o @ £400, 19 y/o @ £600, 20 y/o @ £800, 21 y/o @ £1000).
So this would suggest that the best time to close down your academies is when you can get an equivalent player from the free-agent list through to 21 for less money. The equilibrium point will therefore be where this cost = £130k. AF fee for a new regen is likely to be £16k so that means you have £114k remaining to pay the wages for 6 seasons (168 days) plus a signing bonus of 10x daily wage - bringing it in total to 178 days. 114k divided by 178 days = £640/day.
This suggests that YA's are a bargain - you won't get many quality players for that value from the free agent list. But this is assuming that every graduate your YA produces has a decent potential, rather than just being a filler to make up the numbers. If there are twice as many academy spots available in a country as there are decent players due to come through, your YA is only going to be half as effective, which means you'll be better off going to the FA list if you can get the player you want for wages less than £1280 day.
All this to me suggests that if you want a youth squad which can provide you with some reasonable but not stellar players for your first team in future, you'll be better off going to the free agent list. But if you want a shot at the best youths your best chance is to build some academies; a great youth on the free agent list is not going to go for less than £1.2k a day - of that I am sure!
First off, thanks for the nice words! :)
ReplyDeleteI think you are right in terms of bringing youth up from academies compared to the free agent list. This of course depends on the fact that you do a straight comparison of potential and players between YAs and free transfer list.
I think my conclusion is more to the fact that if you want to be cost efficient, you should buy these fully developed players at age 21+ and be happy with the fact that someone else paid a premium to develop them over the seasons.